我國(guo)(guo)經(jing)濟(ji)在2004～2010年(nian)期(qi)間完成了對劉(liu)易(yi)斯(si)轉(zhuan)(zhuan)折(zhe)(zhe)點(dian)（勞(lao)(lao)動(dong)(dong)(dong)力(li)(li)從過剩到短缺(que)的(de)(de)轉(zhuan)(zhuan)折(zhe)(zhe)點(dian)）的(de)(de)跨越(yue)。一(yi)國(guo)(guo)經(jing)濟(ji)跨越(yue)劉(liu)易(yi)斯(si)轉(zhuan)(zhuan)折(zhe)(zhe)點(dian)之(zhi)后，資(zi)本和勞(lao)(lao)動(dong)(dong)(dong)力(li)(li)的(de)(de)相對稀缺(que)性關(guan)系就會發生(sheng)根(gen)本變化，一(yi)個重要表現是資(zi)本替(ti)(ti)代勞(lao)(lao)動(dong)(dong)(dong)的(de)(de)現象越(yue)來越(yue)多(duo)。在勞(lao)(lao)動(dong)(dong)(dong)力(li)(li)相對富余的(de)(de)農業，隨(sui)著農村勞(lao)(lao)動(dong)(dong)(dong)力(li)(li)大量外流，近年(nian)來農業生(sheng)產的(de)(de)資(zi)源稟賦結構也發生(sheng)了改(gai)變，傳統(tong)農業生(sheng)產中以勞(lao)(lao)動(dong)(dong)(dong)替(ti)(ti)代資(zi)本的(de)(de)組織方式(shi)逐步(bu)為資(zi)本替(ti)(ti)代勞(lao)(lao)動(dong)(dong)(dong)所取代，并成為一(yi)個不可(ke)逆轉(zhuan)(zhuan)的(de)(de)趨勢(shi)。

在(zai)這個過程中(zhong)，有(you)一個問題需要(yao)引起特(te)別注意。在(zai)農業生產(chan)(chan)(chan)中(zhong)，資(zi)(zi)本替(ti)代勞動并不必然帶來勞動生產(chan)(chan)(chan)率的(de)(de)提(ti)高。相(xiang)反，如果資(zi)(zi)金流入沒有(you)伴隨(sui)相(xiang)應(ying)的(de)(de)生產(chan)(chan)(chan)規(gui)模(mo)(mo)擴大，資(zi)(zi)本對勞動的(de)(de)替(ti)代就會導致(zhi)農業生產(chan)(chan)(chan)過程中(zhong)的(de)(de)資(zi)(zi)源浪費。具體說，生產(chan)(chan)(chan)規(gui)模(mo)(mo)過小對農業發展的(de)(de)制(zhi)約主要(yao)表現(xian)在(zai)如下(xia)兩(liang)個方面：

一(yi)是制(zhi)(zhi)約(yue)(yue)先進技術(shu)(shu)(shu)應(ying)用和現(xian)代農(nong)(nong)業(ye)(ye)(ye)發展(zhan)。在(zai)現(xian)實生(sheng)(sheng)產(chan)中，農(nong)(nong)業(ye)(ye)(ye)技術(shu)(shu)(shu)的(de)(de)應(ying)用存在(zai)一(yi)個規(gui)模臨界點，當農(nong)(nong)戶(hu)(hu)生(sheng)(sheng)產(chan)規(gui)模較小的(de)(de)時候，按照經濟(ji)與理性原(yuan)則(ze)，農(nong)(nong)戶(hu)(hu)并不傾向于(yu)采(cai)用新技術(shu)(shu)(shu)，甚至根本無法單獨(du)采(cai)用“規(gui)模性技術(shu)(shu)(shu)”。因此，在(zai)農(nong)(nong)業(ye)(ye)(ye)生(sheng)(sheng)產(chan)規(gui)模不變的(de)(de)條件下(xia)，特別是在(zai)以小農(nong)(nong)戶(hu)(hu)為基礎的(de)(de)農(nong)(nong)業(ye)(ye)(ye)生(sheng)(sheng)產(chan)條件下(xia)，資本對勞動的(de)(de)替代主要表現(xian)為對低(di)技術(shu)(shu)(shu)含量的(de)(de)農(nong)(nong)業(ye)(ye)(ye)機(ji)械的(de)(de)購買，以及農(nong)(nong)藥、化肥、除草劑(ji)等生(sheng)(sheng)產(chan)要素的(de)(de)大(da)劑(ji)量使用。這仍(reng)屬于(yu)粗放(fang)型農(nong)(nong)業(ye)(ye)(ye)生(sheng)(sheng)產(chan)方式，不僅(jin)制(zhi)(zhi)約(yue)(yue)先進技術(shu)(shu)(shu)應(ying)用、限制(zhi)(zhi)農(nong)(nong)業(ye)(ye)(ye)生(sheng)(sheng)產(chan)水平提高，而且增加農(nong)(nong)業(ye)(ye)(ye)生(sheng)(sheng)產(chan)污染的(de)(de)可能(neng)性。

二是(shi)對農(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)勞動(dong)(dong)力(li)結(jie)構(gou)產(chan)(chan)(chan)生(sheng)(sheng)不(bu)(bu)(bu)利影響。農(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)生(sheng)(sheng)產(chan)(chan)(chan)規(gui)模(mo)過(guo)小，導致農(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)生(sheng)(sheng)產(chan)(chan)(chan)效(xiao)率(lv)難以(yi)提高，農(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)比較效(xiao)益低(di)(di)下，有能(neng)(neng)力(li)、有知識以(yi)及年富力(li)強的(de)勞動(dong)(dong)力(li)就(jiu)會(hui)選擇離開(kai)農(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)領域，進入第二、三(san)產(chan)(chan)(chan)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)。這(zhe)使得農(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)勞動(dong)(dong)力(li)結(jie)構(gou)呈現老年化(hua)與低(di)(di)技能(neng)(neng)化(hua)趨勢。現代農(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)發(fa)展需要(yao)與之相適(shi)應(ying)的(de)現代農(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)生(sheng)(sheng)產(chan)(chan)(chan)組(zu)(zu)織(zhi)和生(sheng)(sheng)產(chan)(chan)(chan)者(zhe)。轉變(bian)農(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)生(sheng)(sheng)產(chan)(chan)(chan)方(fang)式(shi)，首先必須改(gai)變(bian)農(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)的(de)生(sheng)(sheng)產(chan)(chan)(chan)組(zu)(zu)織(zhi)方(fang)式(shi)，培育(yu)發(fa)展新型農(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)經營主體，如家庭農(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)場(chang)、專業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)大戶、農(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)民合(he)作社、龍頭企業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)以(yi)及農(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)社會(hui)化(hua)服(fu)務組(zu)(zu)織(zhi)，從而(er)形成新的(de)農(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)生(sheng)(sheng)產(chan)(chan)(chan)服(fu)務體系。老年化(hua)、低(di)(di)技能(neng)(neng)化(hua)的(de)農(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)勞動(dong)(dong)力(li)結(jie)構(gou)顯然(ran)不(bu)(bu)(bu)利于(yu)農(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)發(fa)展，特別是(shi)不(bu)(bu)(bu)利于(yu)農(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)產(chan)(chan)(chan)品市場(chang)開(kai)拓與農(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)生(sheng)(sheng)產(chan)(chan)(chan)新技術、新品種以(yi)及新生(sheng)(sheng)產(chan)(chan)(chan)資料等要(yao)素的(de)使用(yong)。農(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)勞動(dong)(dong)力(li)結(jie)構(gou)不(bu)(bu)(bu)改(gai)善，農(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)的(de)粗放生(sheng)(sheng)產(chan)(chan)(chan)方(fang)式(shi)就(jiu)難以(yi)改(gai)變(bian)，農(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)的(de)衰(shuai)敗與農(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)村的(de)凋敝將不(bu)(bu)(bu)可避免。

因(yin)此，適(shi)度擴(kuo)(kuo)大農(nong)(nong)業(ye)(ye)(ye)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)規模(mo)(mo)，是(shi)我國(guo)跨越劉(liu)易斯轉折點后保障糧食安全、實(shi)現(xian)(xian)農(nong)(nong)業(ye)(ye)(ye)健康發(fa)(fa)展的(de)(de)(de)關鍵。適(shi)度擴(kuo)(kuo)大農(nong)(nong)業(ye)(ye)(ye)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)規模(mo)(mo)，并不是(shi)要改變(bian)農(nong)(nong)村土(tu)(tu)地(di)(di)承(cheng)(cheng)包關系(xi)，也不是(shi)要盲目擴(kuo)(kuo)大農(nong)(nong)業(ye)(ye)(ye)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)規模(mo)(mo)；而是(shi)依據自然經(jing)(jing)濟條(tiao)件、農(nong)(nong)村勞動力轉移情況、農(nong)(nong)業(ye)(ye)(ye)機械化水平等因(yin)素，合理(li)確定農(nong)(nong)業(ye)(ye)(ye)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)規模(mo)(mo)。在(zai)落實(shi)土(tu)(tu)地(di)(di)承(cheng)(cheng)包經(jing)(jing)營權確權登記頒證(zheng)工(gong)作的(de)(de)(de)基礎(chu)(chu)上(shang)，通過土(tu)(tu)地(di)(di)經(jing)(jing)營權有序(xu)流轉等方式，將細碎(sui)化的(de)(de)(de)地(di)(di)塊集(ji)中到(dao)專業(ye)(ye)(ye)大戶等新型農(nong)(nong)業(ye)(ye)(ye)經(jing)(jing)營主體手中，實(shi)現(xian)(xian)適(shi)度規模(mo)(mo)的(de)(de)(de)農(nong)(nong)業(ye)(ye)(ye)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)。我們在(zai)調研(yan)中發(fa)(fa)現(xian)(xian)，一(yi)旦實(shi)現(xian)(xian)了適(shi)度規模(mo)(mo)的(de)(de)(de)農(nong)(nong)業(ye)(ye)(ye)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)，農(nong)(nong)戶對施肥技術、良(liang)(liang)種配套、栽培(pei)技術以及(ji)先進(jin)農(nong)(nong)機設備的(de)(de)(de)需求就(jiu)會增加(jia)，化肥、農(nong)(nong)藥、塑料薄膜等污染(ran)源就(jiu)更(geng)(geng)加(jia)可控，農(nong)(nong)業(ye)(ye)(ye)面源污染(ran)的(de)(de)(de)單位治(zhi)理(li)成本就(jiu)會降低。這不僅(jin)可以提(ti)高(gao)農(nong)(nong)地(di)(di)使用效率，而且能夠(gou)保證(zheng)種糧大戶收(shou)入(ru)與城鎮居(ju)民基本相當，增加(jia)農(nong)(nong)民收(shou)入(ru)，吸引更(geng)(geng)多的(de)(de)(de)能人從(cong)(cong)事農(nong)(nong)業(ye)(ye)(ye)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)。實(shi)現(xian)(xian)土(tu)(tu)地(di)(di)和(he)農(nong)(nong)業(ye)(ye)(ye)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)適(shi)度規模(mo)(mo)經(jing)(jing)營，社會分工(gong)和(he)專業(ye)(ye)(ye)化生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)自然得到(dao)發(fa)(fa)展，將形成一(yi)系(xi)列(lie)專業(ye)(ye)(ye)化生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)基地(di)(di)，從(cong)(cong)而進(jin)一(yi)步(bu)為增加(jia)科技投入(ru)、實(shi)現(xian)(xian)標(biao)準化生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)態化生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)奠定基礎(chu)(chu)，形成現(xian)(xian)代農(nong)(nong)業(ye)(ye)(ye)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)的(de)(de)(de)良(liang)(liang)性循環。