由中(zhong)國(guo)(guo)農(nong)(nong)業(ye)科學院(yuan)農(nong)(nong)業(ye)信息(xi)(xi)研究所主(zhu)辦的(de)(de)首屆中(zhong)國(guo)(guo)農(nong)(nong)業(ye)展望大(da)會日前在京召開。大(da)會首次發布(bu)(bu)了《中(zhong)國(guo)(guo)農(nong)(nong)業(ye)展望報告（2014-2023）》以及糧(liang)食、棉(mian)花、油料(liao)、糖(tang)料(liao)、肉類、禽(qin)蛋、奶類、蔬菜、水果等農(nong)(nong)產品(pin)(10.51, -0.25, -2.32%)分品(pin)種展望報告，標志著(zhu)中(zhong)國(guo)(guo)特(te)色農(nong)(nong)業(ye)信息(xi)(xi)監測預警體(ti)系建設取得成效(xiao)，開啟了提(ti)前發布(bu)(bu)市場信號、有效(xiao)引導市場、主(zhu)動(dong)應對國(guo)(guo)際變化的(de)(de)新篇章(zhang)。

報告認為，中國農(nong)業(ye)未來面(mian)臨(lin)著(zhu)新型(xing)農(nong)業(ye)經(jing)營體(ti)系激活(huo)農(nong)業(ye)生(sheng)產(chan)活(huo)力、科技創(chuang)新主(zhu)導(dao)農(nong)業(ye)發(fa)(fa)展方式轉變進程、支持(chi)性(xing)的(de)農(nong)業(ye)政(zheng)策環(huan)境仍(reng)將持(chi)續、信息化快速(su)(su)發(fa)(fa)展助力現代農(nong)業(ye)騰(teng)飛的(de)機遇(yu)，也面(mian)臨(lin)著(zhu)耕地資源(yuan)減少質(zhi)量不高(gao)、水資源(yuan)約束日益加劇(ju)和氣候變化導(dao)致農(nong)業(ye)生(sheng)產(chan)風(feng)險充(chong)滿不確定性(xing)的(de)挑(tiao)戰。雖然未來10年，主(zhu)要農(nong)產(chan)品需求(qiu)增長速(su)(su)度要略高(gao)于生(sheng)產(chan)的(de)發(fa)(fa)展速(su)(su)度，但中國人的(de)飯(fan)碗將仍(reng)然牢牢端在自己手(shou)中。

報告(gao)預(yu)(yu)(yu)測，未來(lai)10年(nian)(nian)，中(zhong)國(guo)(guo)主(zhu)(zhu)要農產(chan)(chan)品產(chan)(chan)量(liang)(liang)(liang)將穩(wen)中(zhong)有(you)升，其中(zhong)稻(dao)谷(gu)、小麥(mai)(mai)、食(shi)糖(tang)和蔬菜(cai)產(chan)(chan)量(liang)(liang)(liang)呈穩(wen)健增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)態勢；水產(chan)(chan)品、牛羊肉、飼料(liao)(liao)、玉(yu)(yu)米(mi)、油料(liao)(liao)和禽蛋仍呈快(kuai)速(su)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)狀態；奶(nai)類(lei)(lei)以3.5%的(de)(de)(de)年(nian)(nian)均(jun)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)率將成為增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)速(su)度最快(kuai)的(de)(de)(de)產(chan)(chan)品之一。中(zhong)國(guo)(guo)主(zhu)(zhu)要農產(chan)(chan)品需求(qiu)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)較(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)為強(qiang)勁，其中(zhong)水產(chan)(chan)品、牛奶(nai)、玉(yu)(yu)米(mi)、食(shi)糖(tang)和水果消(xiao)費(fei)(fei)呈快(kuai)速(su)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)態勢，年(nian)(nian)均(jun)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)率均(jun)超過2%；肉類(lei)(lei)、小麥(mai)(mai)、稻(dao)谷(gu)、棉花(hua)(hua)和蔬菜(cai)消(xiao)費(fei)(fei)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)則較(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)為穩(wen)健。具體(ti)而言，稻(dao)谷(gu)、小麥(mai)(mai)和玉(yu)(yu)米(mi)三大(da)(da)主(zhu)(zhu)糧(liang)(liang)的(de)(de)(de)自給(gei)率預(yu)(yu)(yu)計(ji)(ji)(ji)保持(chi)(chi)較(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)高水平，能夠實現“谷(gu)物(wu)基本自給(gei)、口(kou)(kou)糧(liang)(liang)絕對安(an)全(quan)(quan)(quan)”的(de)(de)(de)糧(liang)(liang)食(shi)安(an)全(quan)(quan)(quan)目標；食(shi)用油生(sheng)(sheng)產(chan)(chan)預(yu)(yu)(yu)計(ji)(ji)(ji)將穩(wen)步增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)，進(jin)(jin)口(kou)(kou)將有(you)所下降，未來(lai)大(da)(da)豆(dou)進(jin)(jin)口(kou)(kou)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速(su)將明(ming)顯放緩(huan)(huan)，至2023年(nian)(nian)大(da)(da)豆(dou)進(jin)(jin)口(kou)(kou)量(liang)(liang)(liang)為7300多萬噸；棉花(hua)(hua)受比較(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)效(xiao)益下降、國(guo)(guo)家主(zhu)(zhu)動調(diao)整政策等影響，生(sheng)(sheng)產(chan)(chan)面積和產(chan)(chan)量(liang)(liang)(liang)預(yu)(yu)(yu)計(ji)(ji)(ji)將呈下降趨勢，消(xiao)費(fei)(fei)緩(huan)(huan)慢增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)；食(shi)糖(tang)消(xiao)費(fei)(fei)預(yu)(yu)(yu)計(ji)(ji)(ji)將保持(chi)(chi)強(qiang)勁增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)態勢，由于產(chan)(chan)量(liang)(liang)(liang)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)不快(kuai)，自給(gei)率有(you)所下降；肉類(lei)(lei)產(chan)(chan)量(liang)(liang)(liang)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)略低于消(xiao)費(fei)(fei)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)，進(jin)(jin)口(kou)(kou)預(yu)(yu)(yu)計(ji)(ji)(ji)將會增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)加；奶(nai)類(lei)(lei)生(sheng)(sheng)產(chan)(chan)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速(su)放緩(huan)(huan)，進(jin)(jin)口(kou)(kou)將繼(ji)續(xu)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)加；禽蛋、蔬菜(cai)和水果的(de)(de)(de)加工(gong)消(xiao)費(fei)(fei)預(yu)(yu)(yu)計(ji)(ji)(ji)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)速(su)度較(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)快(kuai)，總體(ti)上將延(yan)續(xu)貿(mao)易(yi)順(shun)差的(de)(de)(de)格局；水產(chan)(chan)品產(chan)(chan)量(liang)(liang)(liang)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)主(zhu)(zhu)要來(lai)自水產(chan)(chan)養殖，世(shi)界(jie)貿(mao)易(yi)領先地(di)位(wei)繼(ji)續(xu)保持(chi)(chi)；飼料(liao)(liao)產(chan)(chan)量(liang)(liang)(liang)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)主(zhu)(zhu)要來(lai)自配合飼料(liao)(liao)，年(nian)(nian)均(jun)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)幅為2.3%，飼料(liao)(liao)消(xiao)費(fei)(fei)會穩(wen)步增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)。總之，農業將繼(ji)續(xu)為中(zhong)國(guo)(guo)宏觀經(jing)濟健康發展(zhan)提供基礎支撐，中(zhong)國(guo)(guo)將繼(ji)續(xu)為世(shi)界(jie)糧(liang)(liang)食(shi)和食(shi)物(wu)安(an)全(quan)(quan)(quan)做出新(xin)的(de)(de)(de)貢(gong)獻。

據大(da)(da)會(hui)執行主席(xi)、中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)農(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)科院農(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)信(xin)息(xi)研究(jiu)所所長許世衛介(jie)紹，農(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)展(zhan)望是(shi)(shi)應用現(xian)有信(xin)息(xi)判別未來農(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)走勢(shi)的(de)(de)技(ji)術工(gong)(gong)作(zuo)，其(qi)核(he)心(xin)內容是(shi)(shi)發(fa)布(bu)農(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)產(chan)品(pin)(pin)供需信(xin)息(xi)，釋放農(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)產(chan)品(pin)(pin)市(shi)(shi)(shi)場(chang)(chang)變化(hua)信(xin)號(hao)。而召(zhao)開(kai)農(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)展(zhan)望大(da)(da)會(hui)、發(fa)布(bu)農(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)展(zhan)望報告(gao)，是(shi)(shi)世界農(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)大(da)(da)國(guo)及國(guo)際組(zu)(zu)織管理服務(wu)農(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)、調控(kong)農(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)產(chan)品(pin)(pin)市(shi)(shi)(shi)場(chang)(chang)、引導農(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)產(chan)品(pin)(pin)國(guo)際貿(mao)易(yi)的(de)(de)高端市(shi)(shi)(shi)場(chang)(chang)化(hua)工(gong)(gong)具(ju)。為大(da)(da)力加強農(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)信(xin)息(xi)監測(ce)(ce)預(yu)警工(gong)(gong)作(zuo)，農(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)部(bu)成(cheng)立了(le)市(shi)(shi)(shi)場(chang)(chang)預(yu)警專(zhuan)家委(wei)員會(hui)，組(zu)(zu)建了(le)糧、棉、油、肉、蛋、奶及蔬(shu)菜、水果等(deng)18個（類）農(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)產(chan)品(pin)(pin)的(de)(de)分品(pin)(pin)種市(shi)(shi)(shi)場(chang)(chang)分析師隊伍；中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)農(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)科院農(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)信(xin)息(xi)研究(jiu)所大(da)(da)力開(kai)展(zhan)農(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)信(xin)息(xi)監測(ce)(ce)預(yu)警理論與技(ji)術研究(jiu)，構(gou)建了(le)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)農(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)監測(ce)(ce)預(yu)警模(mo)型(xing)系統，建立起系統性(xing)監測(ce)(ce)預(yu)警技(ji)術支撐條(tiao)件。本次會(hui)議(yi)發(fa)布(bu)的(de)(de)《中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)農(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)展(zhan)望報告(gao)（2014-2023）》，是(shi)(shi)由中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)農(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)科院農(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)信(xin)息(xi)研究(jiu)所牽頭，與農(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)部(bu)農(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)村經濟研究(jiu)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)心(xin)、農(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)部(bu)信(xin)息(xi)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)心(xin)、農(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)部(bu)農(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)貿(mao)易(yi)促進中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)心(xin)等(deng)單(dan)位的(de)(de)專(zhuan)家學者共同完成(cheng)，是(shi)(shi)我國(guo)科技(ji)工(gong)(gong)作(zuo)者開(kai)展(zhan)農(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)展(zhan)望工(gong)(gong)作(zuo)成(cheng)果的(de)(de)集中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)體現(xian)，是(shi)(shi)該領域專(zhuan)家智慧的(de)(de)結晶。